A Policy-Related Reporting Change, not Increasing Financial Distress, Drove the Late 2025 / Early 2026 Increase in the FHA Serious Delinquency Rate
The 90D+ delinquency (DQ) rate on loans insured by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), which captures loans that are 90 or more days delinquent but not in foreclosure or bankruptcy, has increased sharply. At 3.57% in September 2025, it has since risen to 5.23% in January 2026, an increase of 1.66 percentage points (pp) in just 4 months. Market commentators...